1. Introduction, J. Scott Armstrong, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, pp. 1-12.

  2. Role-Playing

  3. Intentions

    • "Methods for Forecasting from Intentions Data," Vicki G. Morwitz, Stern School, New York University, pp. 33-56 – Abstract

  4. Expert Opinions

    • "Improving Judgmental Forecasts," Nigel Harvey, Department of Psychology, University College London, pp. 59-80 – Abstract

    • "Improving Reliability of Judgmental Forecasts," Thomas R. Stewart, Center for Policy Research, State University of New York at Albany, pp. 81-106 – Abstract – Corrections (PDF)

    • "Decomposition for Judgmental Forecasting and Estimation," Donald G. MacGregor, Decision Research, Eugene, Oregon, pp. 107-123 – Abstract

    • "Expert Opinions in Forecasting: Role of the Delphi Technique," Gene Rowe, Institute of Food Research, and George Wright, University of Strathclyde, pp. 125-144 – Abstract

  5. Conjoint Analysis

    • "Forecasting with Conjoint Analysis," Dick R. Wittink, Yale University and Trond Bergestuen, Johnson Graduate School of Management, Cornell University, pp. 147-167 – Abstract

  6. Judgmental Bootstrapping

  7. Analogies

  8. Extrapolation

  9. Rule-based Forecasting

  10. Expert Systems

  11. Econometric Models

    • "Econometric Forecasting," P. Geoffrey Allen, Department of Resource Economics, University of Massachusetts and Robert Fildes, The Management School, Lancaster University, pp. 303-362 – Abstract and see Appendix below

  12. Selecting Methods

  13. Integrating, Adjusting, and Combining Procedures

  14. Evaluating Methods

  15. Assessing Uncertainty

    • "Prediction Intervals for Time Series," Chris Chatfield, Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Bath, pp. 475-494 – Abstract

    • "Overconfidence in Judgmental Forecasting," Hal R. Arkes, Department of Psychology, Ohio State University, pp. 495-515 – Abstract

  16. Gaining Acceptance

  17. Monitoring Forecasts

    • "Learning from Experience: Coping with Hindsight Bias and Ambiguity," Baruch Fischhoff, Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie-Mellon University, pp. 543-554 – Abstract

  18. Applications of Principles

  19. Diffusion of Principles

  20. Summary


Supporting Materials:
Tables on which econometric methods work best, by Geoff Allen

People Index
Subject Index (PDF, 49kb)

The Forecasting Dictionary