Applying structured analogies to the global warming alarm movement
A project directed by This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. and This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..
A copy of the current draft working paper from this project, titled "The global warming alarm: Forecasts from the structured analogies method," is available here (updated 31 March , 2011).
The structured analogies procedure we used for this study was as follows:
- Identify possible analogies by searching the literature and by asking experts with different viewpoints to nominate analogies to the target situation: alarm over dangerous manmade global warming.
- Screen the possible analogies to ensure they meet the stated criteria and that the outcomes are known.
- Code the relevant characteristics of the analogous situations.
- Forecast target situation outcomes by using a predetermined mechanical rule to select the outcomes of the analogies.
Here is how we posed the question to the experts:
“The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and other organizations and individuals have warned that unless manmade emissions of carbon dioxide are reduced substantially, temperatures will increase and people and the natural world will suffer serious harm. Some people believe it is already too late to avoid some of that harm.
Have there been other situations that involved widespread alarm over predictions of serious harm that could only be averted at considerable cost? We are particularly interested in alarms endorsed by experts and accepted as serious by relevant authorities.â€
We screened the proposed analogies to find those for which the outcomes were known and that met the criteria of similarity to the global warming alarm. Our criteria for similarity were that the situations must have involved alarms that were:
- based on forecasts of material human catastrophe arising from effects of human activity on the physical environment,
- endorsed by scientists, politicians, and media, and
- accompanied by calls for strong action
In the table below is the list of analogies after we screened the proposed analogies using the above criteria. To date, we have prepared descriptions for seven of them and posted descriptions by others for two of them. Links to the descriptions are provided in the table.
After we had compiled our list, we found that Julian L. Simon had compiled a similar list in his book The Ultimate Resource 2 under the chapter title of "Bad environmental and resource scares". We have reproduced that material here on this site with the kind permission of the Simon family. In the light of Julian Simon's list, we are looking at expanding our list of analogies to the global warming scare.
Analogies to the alarm over dangerous manmade global warming
|
Analogy |
Year |
1 |
Population growth and famine (Malthus) |
1798 |
2 |
Timber famine economic threat |
1865 |
3 |
Uncontrolled reproduction and degeneration (Eugenics) |
1883 |
4 |
1928 |
|
5 |
Soil erosion agricultural production threat |
1934 |
6 |
1939 |
|
7 |
Fluoride in drinking water health effects |
1945 |
8 |
1962 |
|
9 |
Population growth and famine (Ehrlich) |
1968 |
10 |
Global cooling; through to 1975 |
1970 |
11 |
Supersonic airliners, the ozone hole, and skin cancer, etc. |
1970 |
12 |
Environmental tobacco smoke health effects |
1971 |
13 |
1972 |
|
14 |
1974 |
|
1976 |
||
16 |
1979 |
|
17 |
CFCs, the ozone hole, and skin cancer, etc. |
1985 |
18 |
Listeria in cheese |
1985 |
19 |
Radon in homes and lung cancer |
1985 |
20 |
Salmonella in eggs |
1988 |
21 |
1990 |
|
22 |
Mad cow disease (BSE) |
1996 |
23 |
Dioxin in Belgian poultry |
1999 |
24 |
2004 |
|
25 |
Mercury in childhood inoculations and autism |
2005 |
26 |
Cell phone towers and cancer, etc. |
2008 |
The following table lists analogies that were proposed, but that did not meet our criteria.
Proposed analogies that did not meet our criteria

The following table shows our coding of analogies.
The Global Warming Analogies Forecasting Project is a study in progress. We seek peer review, especially with evidence that would challenge our findings or conclusions. Please send us your This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it..