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2004 American Presidential Election

Commentary on Forecasting the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election and Forecasting Models

Commentary collected from various sources, including the APSA Roundtable, Delphi Experts Predictions, Alfred G. Cuzán, Randall J. Jones, Jr., Ray Fair, Allan J. Lichtman, Andrea Moro, and Henry W. Chappell, Jr.

2006 U.S. Congressional Elections

Panels on Presidential Election Forecasting at the ISF 2007 International Symposium on Forecasting

A stream of three panels on U.S. presidential elections was included in the 2007 International Society of Forecasters “International Symposium on Forecasting,” held in New York City last June. To access the papers, click here.

2008 American Presidential Elections

Panel on Methods of Long-Range Election Forecasting

At a panel of the recently held annual meeting of the American Political Science Association in Chicago, a panel on Methods of Long-Range Election Forecasting included several papers with early forecasts of the outcome of the 2008 American presidential election. To access the papers, click here.

UK Elections

Forecasting the 2005 Parliamentary Elections in the United Kingdom

The May issue British Journal of Politics and International Relations includes a collection of articles on election forecasting. Five articles apply different models to the forthcoming British election and a sixth casts a skeptical eye on the entire enterprise. Courtesy of that journal, you can read the abstracts by clicking here. To go straight to the site where all the articles may be downloaded, some for free and other for a fee, click here.