Commentary on the 2004 Election, Forecasting Models, etc.

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• ASPA Roundtable

• Delphi Surveys

• On Presidential Election Forecasting Models

• Alfred G. Cuzán

• Randall J. Jones, Jr.

• Ray Fair

• Allan J. Lichtman

• Andrea Moro, Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Minnesota, has a 2004 Presidential Electoral College Predictions Forecast Page. Using a simulation procedure, Prof. Moro assigns a probability to Bush or Kerry winning the Electoral College Count, and by how many votes, based on state-by-state poll data. The site is automatically updated throughout the day. Also, at the bottom of the page Prof. Moro provides links to other sites where one can find additional Electoral College predictions or simulations using different models and data.

• Henry W. Chappell, Jr., Professor of Economics at the University of South Caroliina, has a Presidential Election Forecast Page. ;As of October 19, he and his colleagues were forecasting that John Kerry would win both the popular vote and the Electoral College count.  For a brief description of the model, click here.  To read a working paper describing their forecasting procedure, click here.