Scott Armstrong presented a talk at Heartland's Twelfth International Conference on Climate Change (ICCC12) on March 23 in Chicago that summarised his research on forecasting climate and the effects of climate policies with Kesten Green.
The talk asked the question, "Are long-term forecasts of dangerous global warming scientific?", and concluded...
- the only 2 papers with scientific forecasts found no long-term trends
- IPCC methods violate 81% of the 89 relevant scientific principles
- IPCC long-term forecasts errors for 90-100 years ahead were 12 times larger than the no-trend forecasts
- tests on three other data sets, one going back to 112 AD, found similarly poor accuracy
- the "long-term global cooling" hypothesis was twice as accurate as the dangerous global warming hypothesis
Also "no" because the warming alarm...
- ignores all 20 of the relevant Golden Rule of Forecasting guidelines; the AGS scientific forecasts violated only one
- violates Occam's razor
- fails to comply with any of the 8 criteria for scientific research
- fails to provide scientific forecasts of harm to people
- fails to provide scientific forecasts that "solutions" will work
- fails to meet any of the 10 necessary conditions for successful regulation
- is similar to 23 earlier environmental alarms supported by the government: all lacked scientific forecasts and all were wrong."
A video of his presentation and a copy of a more complete set of slides with links to evidence, is available here.