As we move into the final days for the election, you might find the forecasts on to be of interest. The PollyVote combines forecasts within each method (e.g., polls, econometric models, betting markets) and then averages across the methods. It forecasts the two-party split for the popular vote and is updated daily.Notice the pattern over time exhibited by Polly's expert panel.

Also, see the "Voter Expectations" predictions (not currently included in the PollyVote). This method is ignored by the mass media. As shown in the new paper by Andreas Graefe, it is a promising method with an excellent track record.

Based on the benefits of combining forecasts and conservative methods, and the track record on previous elections, the final PollyVote is expected to be more accurate than the "actual" results—after correcting for measurement error caused by inevitable mistakes and cheating.