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"Who do you think will win the U.S. presidential election?" A new paper by Andreas Graefe shows that surveys of citizens' expectations provide forecasts of who will win the election that are more accurate than forecasts from polls, prediction markets, experts' judgments, and econometric models. For more information and a copy of the paper, see PollyVote.com. Expections are currently predicting a win for President Obama.
The Forecasting Principles site summarizes all useful knowledge about forecasting so that it can be used by researchers, practitioners, and educators. The site is devoted to improving decision making by furthering scientific forecasting.