German OR Society Workshop

Forecasting of Fast Moving Consumer Goods

May 3rd & 4th 2012

Hosted by the Beiersdorf AG, Hamburg


You are invited to join the next meeting of the German OR Society (GOR) working group on Forecasting Methods. The meeting will be held May 3rd & 4th 2012, and is hosted by the Beiersdorf AG in their headquarters in Hamburg, Germany. The topics of this meeting will focus on forecasting for fast moving consumer goods manufacturers, in line with the expertise of our hosts. Due to the international background of the speakers, the meeting will be held both in English and German. The provisional agenda of presentations is below. Lunch and Coffee breaks will be provided.

Thursday, 3rd May 2012, Tutorial & Presentations

9:00 – 12:00

Tutorial on Forecasting with SAP APO DP – an Introduction to Exponential Smoothing for Business Practitioners (optional, ca. 180 minutes) Dr. Sven F. Crone, Assistant Professor & Director of the Centre for Forecasting, Lancaster University

13:00 – 14:00

Welcome Address & Advanced Planning at Beiersdorf: Integrating Forecasting into Demand, Supply, Production and Network Planning Ralf Wielage, Director SCM Plan, Beiersdorf AG, HQ, Hamburg

14:00 – 15:00

Forecasting with SAP APO-DP: A tale of Human Experts vs. Automated Systems?

Michael Tramnitzke, Global Category Team Leader Packaging Materials, Beiersdorf AG, HQ, Hamburg

15:30 – 16:30

Demand Sensing: Better Math to Navigate Volatile Markets Robert F. Byrne, Chief Executive Officer, Terra Technology, Norwalk, CO, USA

16:45 – 17:45

Improving Supply Chain Forecasting

Prof. Robert Fildes, Distinguished Professor, Lancaster University Management School, Centre for Forecasting, Lancaster, UK

Social get-together for Networking

Fischereihafen Restaurant Hamburg,

Friday, 4th May 2012, Presentations & Discussions

9:00 – 10:00

The Impact of Cross-functional Forecasting for Logistics at Coca-Cola AG (presented in German) Dr. Michael Bell, Head of Logistics (Bavaria), Coca-Cola AG, Erlangen

10:00 – 11:00

Automatic Forecasting & Replenishment of Weather Dependent Products with SAP F&R (in German) Dr. Norman Götz, Head of Logistics, Forecasting & Replenishment, EDEKA LUNAR GmbH, Hamburg

11:15 – 12:15

Daily Web Crawling & Scraping to Forecast Market Trends and Disruptions in Real Time Janko Thyson, Research Associate, WFI Catholic University of Eichstätt-Ingolstadt, Ingolstadt

12:15 – 13:15

Best Practices in Supply Chain Forecasting? First Insights from Survey Feedback of 200+ Companies Dr. Sven F. Crone, Matt Weller, Lancaster University Management School, Centre for Forecasting, UK


Workshop Location


Beiersdorf AG, Head Office

Unnastraße 48

20253 Hamburg




Registration deadline is 25th April 2012. The number of attendees is limited. Registration is free for members of the German OR Society (application forms can be found online: www.gor-ev.de), workshop presenters and employees of the hosting organisation only. Registration for all others costs €100.- (academic institutions) or €200.- (company representatives). Payment details are provided upon registration.

To register for the workshop, please email your name, company, German OR-membership details (if applicable) and full address details (for invoicing) to Holger Kömm: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. For all other enquiries please contact the local chair, Dr. Sven F. Crone: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

We look forward to welcoming you in Hamburg.

Dr. Sven F. Crone

Assistant Professor in Management Science, Lancaster University Director of the Lancaster Research Centre for Forecasting Local Workshop Chair

Holger Kömm

Catholic University Eichstätt-Ingolstadt Official coordinator of the GOR working group on Forecasting Methods

Prof. Dr. Ulrich Küsters

Catholic University Eichstätt-Ingolstadt Chair of the GOR working group on Forecasting Methods

Dr. Stefan Gnutzmann

Daimler AG

Co-Chair of the GOR working group on Forecasting Methods