forecastingprinciples.com Reviews of Important Papers on Forecasting
Before 1985 Reviews
Review of:

Peter C. Wilton and Edgar A. Pessemier (1981), “Forecasting the ultimate acceptance of an innovation: the effects of information," Journal of Consumer Research, 8 162-171.


This paper uses a multivariate probit model to predict the stated choices for a subcomponent electric vehicle for 196 individuals in a hold-out sample. These results were not impressive when compared with chance. Actual market behavior was also used as a criterion and here the probit model appeared to be of some value.