Peter C. Wilton and Edgar A. Pessemier (1981), “Forecasting
the ultimate acceptance of an innovation: the effects of
information," Journal of Consumer Research, 8 162-171.
This paper uses a multivariate probit model to predict the stated
choices for a subcomponent electric vehicle for 196 individuals in a
hold-out sample. These results were not impressive when compared with
chance. Actual market behavior was also used as a criterion and here the
probit model appeared to be of some value.