Allan H. Murphy, et al (1980),
“Misinterpretations of precipitation probability forecasts,” Bulletin
of the American Meteorological Society, 61, 695-701.
Managers often tell me that it introduces too much complexity to use probabilities or distributions when presenting forecasts in their organizations. Other managers will be confused they say. In this study, Murphy et al.
show that the general public has a good understanding of the meaning of precipitating probability forecasts. They even
preferred such forecasts. Now if managers are as smart as the general public . . .