forecastingprinciples.com Reviews of Important Papers on Forecasting
Before 1985 Reviews
Review of:

Asher Koriat, Sarah Lichtenstein, and Barauch Fischoff (1980), "Reasons for confidence," Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Learning and Memory, 6, 107-118.


People tend to think of the reasons to support a given decision or forecast: this leads to overconfidence. In this study, an explicit list of the reasons contradicting their answers in a test of knowledge led to a more realistic estimate of confidence in their answers. Perhaps this conclusion can be generalized to forecasts.