Asher Koriat, Sarah Lichtenstein, and Barauch Fischoff
(1980), "Reasons for confidence," Journal of Experimental
Psychology: Human Learning and Memory, 6, 107-118.
People tend to think of the reasons to support a given decision or forecast: this leads to overconfidence. In this study,
an explicit list of the reasons contradicting their answers in a test of knowledge led to a more realistic estimate of confidence in their answers. Perhaps this conclusion can be generalized to forecasts.