forecastingprinciples.com Reviews of Important Papers on Forecasting
Before 1985 Reviews
Review of:

Gordon E. Greenley (1983), “Where marketing planning fails” Long Range Planning, 16, 106-115.


This paper presents results from personal interviews with high level marketing decision makers in 40 U.K. companies. The companies were selected using a stratified random sample. One question related to the methods they used to make forecasts for their marketing plan. This plan typically covered one year, but in about 20 percent f the cases it extended for 2-3 years. Their responses were as shown in Table 1.

Table 1

Method Mentioned during interview (%) In top three methods used by firm (%)

Judgmental
  Top management
  Sales force
  Consumer intentions


86
89
57


51
66
45

Extrapolation
  Simple projection of trends
  Time series analysis


83
14


63
14
Causal methods
  Models
  Correlation

26
14

20
11

Simple, unaided opinions and crude extrapolations were the dominant methods for market forecasting.