forecastingprinciples.com Reviews of Important Papers on Forecasting
Before 1985 Reviews
Review of:

Everette D. Gardner, Jr. and David G. Dannenbring (1980), "Forecasting with exponential smoothing: some guidelines for model selection," Decision Sciences, 11., 370-383.


Compares different extrapolation methods (Holt, Gilchrist, Montgomery, Simple Smoothing, Whybark, Trigg and Leach, Roberts and Reed, and Chow) tp predict for 9000 simulated time series (variations in levels, trends and random error). Uses a variety of error measures (e.g. MAD, SME, MAE). Conclusions: (1) Adaptive models generate unstable forecasts, even when average demand is stable. (2) Trend adjusted models should be used to hedge against sudden changes in demand.