Reviews of Important Papers on Forecasting
Before 1985 Reviews
Review of:

Edward B. Fink, W. Braden and C. B. Qualls (1982), “Predicting pharmacotherapy outcome by subjective response," Journal of Clinical Psychiatry, 43, 272-275.

How effective will a drug be for a patient? One way to improve this prediction is to ask the patient about the benefit of the drug after 24 hours of use. Patients' responses were related to clinical improvement after 8 to 21 days in this experiment, which extends previous work. What seems most surprising is that such predictive measures are not used routinely.