forecastingprinciples.com Reviews of Important Papers on Forecasting
Before 1985 Reviews
Review of:

Jay J. J. Christensen-Szalanski and Lee Roy Beach (1982), "Experience and the base-rate fallacy, "Organizational Behaviour and Human Performance, 29, 270 – 278.

Ruth Beyth-Marom and Hal R. Arkes (1983), "Being accurate but not necessarily Bayesian; comments on Christensen-Szalanski and Beach," Organizational Behaviour and Human Performance.

Jay J. J. Christensen-Szalanski and Lee Roy Beach (1983), "Believing is not the same as testing," Organizational Behaviour and Human Performance.


In Christensen-Szalanski and Beach (1982), decision maker who experienced the relationship between the base rate (i.e., the frequency with which an event occurred in a series of trials and diagnostic information used this when they  made judgments in this experiment. But when given the necessary theoretical information they did not use the base rate effectively. (In other words, people may not use Bayes rule; but with experience, the can come close the the Bayesain solution.) Beyth-Marom and Arkes (1983) challenge the interpretation. Rather than using Bayes theorem, they suggest that the subjects made direct estimates of the proportions. Christensen-Szalanski and Beach (1983), however, say that this is compatible with their interpretation. They quote a passage from their 1982 paper that supports this point. They also question the external validity of studies that use quantitative word problems to study human cognition.