forecastingprinciples.com Reviews of Important Papers on Forecasting
Before 1985 Reviews
Review of:

Colin Camerer (1981), “General conditions for the success of bootstrapping models” Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 27, 411-422.


This paper examines bootstrapping models, linear models of human judgment used for prediction instead of human judgment. It concludes that bootstrapping models make better predictions than experts in nearly all practical situations in which data on the criterion are missing or vague. Arguments are based both on analysis and on empirical results.