forecastingprinciples.com Reviews of Important Papers on Forecasting
Before 1985 Reviews
Review of:

Michael Burns and Judea Pearl (1981), "Causal and diagnostic inferences: a comparison of validity," Organizational Behaviour and Human Performance, 28, 379 – 394.


The results of this experiment were surprising; better predictions did not result when causal reasoning was used to decompose problems for a group of subjects. No-causal approaches worked just as well.