forecastingprinciples.com Reviews of Important Papers on Forecasting
Before 1985 Reviews
Review of:

Arkes, Hal R. et al (1981), “Hindsight bias among physicians weighing the likelihood of diagnoses,” Journal of Applied Psychology, 66, 252-254.


Hindsight bias was found in this study of 75 physicians; compared to a control group, physicians given information that an unlikely outcome had occurred were more likely to say they would have predicted the outcome. Implications for forecasting: Users of forecasts are likely to feel that preparers of forecasts dud a poor job when unusual events occur. To guard against this, get the users to record their own forecasts for events (prior to the event).