The Golden Rule of Forecasting is,
"be conservative" when forecasting by relying on cummulative knowledge about the situation and about forecasting.
Evidence on the Golden Rule and guidelines on how to implement the Rule are described in"
Armstrong, J. S., Green, K. C., & Graefe, A. (2015). Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be conservative. Journal of Business Research, 1717-1731. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.031
NEW! The Golden Rule of Forecasting App for Android devices is available to download from Google, here.
- The working paper by J. Scott Armstrong, Kesten C. Green, and Andreas Graefe is available here.
- The article "Golden rule of forecasting: Be conservative" is forthcoming in the Journal of Business Research, and is published online at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.031
- Green, Armstrong, & Graefe's response to commentators, titled "Golden rule of forecasting rearticulated: Forecast unto others as you would have them forecast unto you" is available as a working paper here, and is published online at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.036
- The Golden Rule of Forecasting Checklist is available here.
- The Golden Rule of Forecasting Checklist software is an online tool available here, and from clicking the golden button, below.
- Data on error increases from ignoring Golden Rule of Forecasting Checklist guidelines is summarized in the spreadsheet here.
- A copy of an online questionnaire used to ask forecasting experts for feedback on the guidelines proposed for the Golden Rule of Forecasting Checklist is available here.
- The responses to the online questionnaire on the Golden Rule of Forecasting Checklist are available in an Excel spreadsheet here.
- A copy of the slides for the paper presented at the International Symposium in Forecasting in Seoul (June 2013) is here.
- And a copy of the slides for the paper presented at the International Symposium in Forecasting in Rotterdam (June 2014) is here.
Application of the Golden Rule Checklist at the International Symposium on Forecasting 2015, Riverside
Scott Armstrong presented a paper by himself and Kesten Green illustrating the application of the Golden Rule of Forecasting checklist using the example of climate forecasting. Their paper was titled "Applications of the Golden Rule".
- The abstract and slides for "Are dangerous warming forecasts consistent with the Golden Rule" are available to download from here.
- A supporting flyer is available from here.
Kesten Green presented a paper by Andreas Graefe, himself, and Scott Armstrong illustrating the application of three Golden Rule of Forecasting checklist items that apply particularly to causal methods to improving the performance of established election forecasting models. Application of the Golden Rule Guideline items led to a simple model, and a 45% error reduction. Their paper was titled "Effect of conservatism on the accuracy of forecasts from econometric models".
- The abstract and slides for "Effect of conservatism on the accuracy of forecasts from econometric models" are available to download from ResearchGate here.
Page last updated 29 November 2015
For some reason, the availability of the Kindle version of the Principles of Forecasting handbook disappeared from Amazon. It is back up. Good thing as it is the best-selling format for PoF. Why? The cost per principle is only one dollar. Also, it is easy to search; and it does not weigh much.
With little more than three weeks to go before the International Symposium on Forecasting opens in Seoul, if you haven't already it is time to register. The ISF is the premier international event for forecasters. You'll benefit from the experiences of forecasters from a wide variety of industries, cutting-edge research from top academics, and interaction with your peers and the experts throughout the program.