Andreas Graefe presented a post-mortem of the forecasting of the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election at TEDxMünchen. Andreas discussed why most of the methods used to predict the Clinton-Trump election result were more wrong than usual, and introduced the PollyVote. As regular visitors to this site know, PollyVote combines many forecasts in order to incorporate more knowledge and information, but also to reduce the chances of being badly wrong. You can watch Andreas's talk, which was posted on 11 January 2017, here.
The ForPrin.com Delphi panel freeware had been causing users some problems recently, apparently due to the age of the software. We commissioned an update and repair of the software, and the repaired version is now online on the Software page of this site. Please let us know how the new version of the software is performing, so that we can continue to improve it.
There are at least seven ways to forecast political elections. The most popular among the public is polling of likely voters. As it happens, polls are actually the least accurate method to predict election outcomes. We could combine all of the many polls to improve accuracy, but that brings the polls only up to a tie with econometric models as the least accurate methods.
The solution is PollyVote.com. Launched in 2003, PollyVote provides real time forecasts to demonstrate simple well-tested methods designed to improve forecast accuracy in virtually any area...
Following the publication of the Golden Rule of Forecasting in late 2015, Scott Armstrong and Kesten Green have made available an Android app to help forecasters to follow the Golden Rule and help forecast users to determine whether a forecast is a product of methods that are consistent with the Golden Rule. To find out more about the free app and to download a copy, clcik on the link on the GoldenRuleofForecasting.com page of this site.
Kesten Green and Scott Armstrong have created a new website devoted to evidence on the Iron Law of Regulation. The objective of the site is in part to "summarize experimental evidence on the effect of regulations on general welfare". The site is relevant for forecasters who wish to follow the Golden Rule of Forecasting when engaged in forecasting for public policy. The Golden Rule of Forecasting requires that forecasters acquire and use all relevant knowledge about the situation being forecast. You can visit this new resource, and add it to your favorites, at IronLawofRegulation.com.