Michele Hibon has provided the justifiably famous M-, M2-, and M3-competition data sets in Excel format to make it easier for researchers to use them for testing alternative forecasting methods. The data are available on the Researchers’ page under Data.

Section on Mass Media

- Of general interestA section on "Mass Media" has been added to incorporate interesting news of interest to forecasters. The first item deals with forecasts of demand for convention centers.

  • Forecasting Dictionary Improvement (December 30, 2002) - Of general interest

    An alphabetical listing of all terms defined in the Dictionary has been added to the Dictionary search page - this will allow you to page through the definitions of interest to you or to find a term you have been unable to find intuitively through the search function.

A new section on Decisions in Conflicts has been added to this site under Special Interest Groups. Maintained by Kesten Green, the pages are a resource for managers, practitioners, and researchers concerned with forecasting the decisions of parties in conflict, such as industrial disputes, corporate takeovers, inter-communal conflicts, political negotiations, and diplomatic and military confrontations. This is relevant to the war on terror. Current methodology (unaided judgment by experts) is no better than chance, but simulated interactions can reduce forecast error by half ...