Forty four papers have been accepted for the Macroeconomic stream of the ISF in Hong Kong (June 21-24). Papers with titles that are descriptive and catch the eye include Klaus Wohlrabe's "Nowcasting the US Economy on a daily basis" and Marc Wildi's "Obtaining early signals about US-recessions". See the conference schedule for a complete list of papers (still subject to revision).
Full abstracts are now available from the Symposium's site. Please note that the abstracts are subject to change.
Scientific forecasting with the help of New Zealand school girls picked Obama would win as early as mid- 2007.
In “Predicting elections from politicians’ faces” Armstrong, Green, Jones, and Wright found that McCain was judged more competent-looking that his Republican rivals but was judged less competent-looking than President-elect Obama. more ...
We recently commissioned Zoe Communications to design and implement a site that would be easier for visitors to use and contribute to, one that would be easier for the directors and special interest group managers to make changes to and keep up-to-date. We are pleased with the results, and that hope you are too.
The site now has a Forum for discussions on forecasting matters. We welcome Forum discussions on forecasting research and practice as well as the application of forecasting to newsworthy problems.
In keeping with changes to the Forecasting Method Selection Tree, we have now updated the Forecasting Methodology Tree to specifically include the Index method on the new Causal Methods branch of the Tree, along with Statistical methods (e.g. regression) and Segmentation. Following the helpful suggestions of Mladen Sokele, we have eliminated the tentative link between Neural Nets and Data Mining and have changed the link from Expert Systems to Causal Models to a bidirectional link to better reflect the flow of knowledge. Reintroducing the pop-up windows, which provide explanation and links, is still on our to-do list. Please share your ideas for further improvements to the Trees using the Forum, or email us directly.