Is carbon dioxide a good causal variable for forecasting global temperature? Have there been alarms in the past similar to the current alarm over dangerous manmade global warming and, if so, what happened? Can rule-based forecasting help forecast global mean temperatures? What do prediction markets reveal? These questions and more will be answered at a climate forecasting session at the International Symposium on Forecasting presenting work by Green, Armstrong, and Graefe.
To be useful, forecasts should be substantially more accurate than those from a simple benchmark method, for example the no-change model. We suggest taking the following self-administered quiz Please write down your estimate and then follow the link to find the answer.
Q. Assume that at the end of 1850 you started making 50-year-ahead no-change forecasts such that your first forecast was that the global mean temperature in 1900 would be the same as 1850's. By 2008 you would have accumulated 108 forecasts for which you knew the global mean temperature (i.e to 2007). What would be the mean absolute error of your 50-year ahead no-change forecasts in degrees-Celsius?
A. See the abstract of the Green, Armstrong, and Soon paper "Validity of Climate Change Forecasting for Public Policy Decision Making".
Visitors to www.forecasters.org/ijf will notice a big change to the Interational Journal of Forecasting website. Now all published papers back to Volume 1 can be accessed from this site. There are two new facilities that will change the way readers interact with the journal: comments and supplements.
Comments: It is now possible for readers to contribute comments on each paper via the website. These comments are publicly visible. The authors may provide responses if they choose to do so. So if you have any thoughts on published papers, you can now make them public for the benefit of all forecasters. You can think of this as an extension of refereeing, but post-publication and publicly visible. All comments will be moderated.
The new website also provides links for article submission, guidelines for authors, and provides a list of the top-cited articles in the journal.
Conceptualizing, measuring, and testing forecast performance is at the heart of much forecasting research and applications. Celal Aksu and Wilpen Gore invite authors to submit papers on any facet of this subject.
The schedule of speakers at the International Symposium on Forecasting in Hong Kong includes leading figures in forecasting Professors Scott Armstrong, Robert Fildes, Rob Hyndman, James Taylor, Lindsay Turner, and Stephen Witt.