The Tourism Forecasting Special Interest Group (SIG), sponsored by The Hong Kong Tourism Demand Forecasting System (HKTDFS), was launched on November 26. This SIG is maintained by Haiyan Song, the Chair Professor of Tourism and Associate Director of the School of Hotel and Tourism Management at The Hong Kong Polytechnic University.
This is believed to be the first such SIG that builds a useful platform for industry executives, forecasting practitioners, and researchers concerned with tourism forecasting. It offers a comprehensive overview of the basic concepts and methods of tourism demand forecasting. In addition, the tourism forecasting SIG website also contains a large number of recent tourism forecasting publications including books, conference papers, journal articles, reports for practitioners, and working papers related to tourism forecasting. The site is linked to a number of official datasets and computer software sources, which are useful for tourism forecasting practitioners and researchers. Please visit this SIG.
Using the structured analogies forecasting method that they have developed, Kesten Green and Scott Armstrong have concluded that alarm over “dangerous manmade global warming” is the latest example of a common social phenomenon involving alarming but unscientific forecasts that prove to be wrong. More information about their global warming analogies forecasting project is available on the Public Policy Forecasting Special Interest Group pages here.
The number of visits to the Forecasting Principles site has in less than a year doubled to now exceed 2 million. The first million visits was not achieved until ten years after the site was established. The impressive increase in the rate of visits happened after Zoe Design updated the look, added features, and improved the functionality of the site. We are making efforts to increase the number of links to the ForPrin.com site and look forward to further rapid growth in visitor numbers.
In their paper in the latest issue of the International Journal of Forecasting, Kesten Green, Scott Armstrong, and Willie Soon cast doubt on the need for concern over dangerous manmade global warming that is prima face motivation for the Copenhagen summit taking place this week. The authors' simple evidence-based model produced forecasts that were over seven times more accurate than forecasts from the procedures used by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC); the official provider of advice on climate change. A summary of the implications for the Copenhagen summit is available here.
Some places are still available for Lancaster's course starting on 2-3 December with a second two-day block by arrangement. Some experience in forecasting is assumed. The course will consist of hands-on-training (using mainly MS Excel) on:
- Fundamentals of forecasting
- Statistical forecasting methods
- Limitations of Naive methods
- The effect of moving & weighted averages
- Selecting and Parameterising Exponential Smoothing methods
- Econometric methods
- Understanding single regression
- Extending information to multiple regression
- Building dynamic regression including dummy variables & seasonality
- Forecast evaluation through unbiased forecast errors
- Role & adequate use of judgement in forecasting
- Examples of Forecasting software etc.