The October-December 2009 issue of the International Journal of Forecasting is out and includes a special section on "Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability" edited by Spyros Makridakis and Nassim Taleb. The 11 papers in the special section include ones on forecasting in business and economics, medicine, and for public policy (e.g. Green, Armstrong, & Soon's paper on whether it is possible to forecast global temperatures). The issue also includes an article on forecasting economic and financial variables with Global VARs with seven commentaries and a rejoinder, and an obituary for forecasting pioneer Sir Clive Granger (1934-2009). The table of contents with links to the articles is available here.
Thirty-five scientists signed a letter addressed to the EPA Administrator, the Honorable Lisa P. Jackson, on October 7 2009 expressing concern that proposed rulemaking on the regulation of greenhouse gases would be based on unscientific forecasting procedures. Read more about the letter on the Public Policy Forecasting pages.
World leaders gathered in New York are being lambasted by the UN with predictions of dire climate consequences if they fail to institute costly policies against CO2 emissions. Meanwhile, 20 months ago Scott Armstrong challenged Al Gore, an advocate of the UN forecasts, to bet the UN Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change's projection that global mean temperatures would be 0.3 degrees Celsius warmer in ten years time against the scientific benchmark forecast that there would be no change in global mean temperatures. Al Gore declined the bet but, had he taken it, he would have lost 18 out of the first 20 months of the bet. For graphs recording the predictions and outcome to-date see the TheClimateBet.com. See also the graph showing a third-party prediction market on who will win the bet; participants favor the scientific approach to forecasting global temperatures giving Armstrong a 73% chance of winning.