Forecasting researchers may be interested in the following announcement:
The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) will host Proposers' Day for the Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) program on Wednesday, May 19, 2010 in anticipation of the release of a new solicitation in support of the program. The ACE program will focus on aggregating individual judgments to create group forecasts and on communicating the resulting quantitative probabilities to end-users.
The purpose of the conference will be to provide information on the ACE Program, to address questions from potential proposers and to provide a forum for potential proposers to present their capabilities for teaming opportunities.
This announcement serves as a pre-solicitation notice and is issued solely for information and planning purposes. The Proposers’ Day Conference does not constitute a formal solicitation for proposals or proposal abstracts. Conference attendance is voluntary and is not required to propose to future solicitations (if any) associated with this program.
Further information and registration is available here.
Regular visitors will notice that we have added a button for AdPrin.com. The button links to the ForPrin.com sister site "Advertising Principles." The site provides evidence-based advice on, for example, how to forecast the effects of changing the amount of advertising, and how to forecast which of a set of ads will be most persuasive.
Please send news about relevant research findings that you have obtained or interesting findings by others. We will post evidence-based items here in the "What's New" column. We believe there is a lot of news out there, but we need your help to find and to summarize it as news items for forecasting researchers, practitioners, and educators. And, please, tell your colleagues about ForPrin.com!
Is it possible to make useful forecasts about social phenomena such as the alarm over predictions of dangerous manmade global warming? Kesten Green and Scott Armstrong reasoned that it should be possible to do so using the structured analogies method. (In their 2007 paper, Green and Armstrong found that structured analogies provided forecasts that were more accurate than experts’ judgments when applied to the difficult problem of forecasting decisions in conflicts.) The Global Warming Analogies Forecasting Project page is now up on the Public Policy Forecasting SIG pages (PublicPolicyForecasting.com). The page includes a link to the Project working paper and lists 26 situations that have been identified as analogous to the current alarm. To date there are descriptions of six of them available. Kesten and Scott welcome evidence and analysis, especially if it contradicts their own efforts to date.