The City of Tampa, Florida forecasts residential and non-residential development within its Channel District in June 2006. The forecasts were used as the basis for recommendations on the allocation of tax revenues for infrastructural and public facilities projects. Did the City of Tampa follow proper forecasting methodology? A forecasting audit conducted by three Wharton students analyzed the forecasting procedures using the Forecasting Audit software. They reported many opportunities to improve the forecasting process, perhaps the major one being transparency. See their audit report here.

 If you have recently published a paper or have a working paper that is relevant to forecasting principles, send it to us along with a short summary and we will post your news item and the paper on the site. Your work will be exposed to nearly 7,000 visits per day. We reserve the right to edit the news item.

 Scott Armstrong, Kesten Green, and Willie Soon made a submission titled "Global Warming Alarm Based on Faulty Forecasting Procedures" on the State Department's report:

"Our research findings challenge the basic assumptions of the State Department’s Fifth U.S. Climate Action Report (CAR 2010). The alarming forecasts of dangerous manmade global warming are not the product of proper scientific evidence-based forecasting methods..." Go to the Public Policy Forecasting pages for details.

Experimentation is an important forecasting method, and it is appropriate to give it explicit recognition. To that end we have added "experimentation" to the Forecasting Methodology Tree and the Forecasting Method Selection Tree. Earlier changes you may have missed include the addition of the versatile "index method" to both Trees.

 Want the latest news on the International Symposium on Forecasting in San Diego this June? We have added a button in the right menu bar of the main page of the site that will take you straight to the ISF site.