Over twenty five years of forecasting research has seen major changes in the theoretical ideas underpinning forecasting effectiveness. However, there has been less impact on forecasting practice. For the ninth year, after the award of three grants in 2003, and two in each year 2004 through 2010, the IIF, in collaboration with SAS, is proud to announce financial support for research on how to improve forecasting methods and business forecasting practice. This consists of two $5,000 grants.
Applications should be submitted to the IIF Office by September 30, 2011. The application must include:
- Description of the project (at most 4 pages)
- Letter of support from the home institution where the researcher is based.
- Brief (4 page) c.v.
- Budget and work-plan for the project.
Criteria for the award of the grant will include likely impact on forecasting methods and business applications. Although funding is not exclusively reserved for the topics found in the link below, please review for description of primary research needs here.
Consideration will be given to the track record of the researcher (thus, students are expected to have an experienced researcher as a co-writer) and whether supplementary funding is likely to be gained. It is also expected that the research supported by the SAS/IIF grant be presented in an International Symposium on Forecasting (ISF) organized by the IIF. The awards will be made through a committee appointed by the IIF directors. The results of the evaluation will be announced to the applicants within about 10 weeks of the closing date.
Grant recipients are required to author a paper reporting on their research for possible publication in the International Journal of Forecasting (IJF). Therefore it is useful to keep in mind the IJF scope; see www.forecasters.org/ijf/scope.
1. SAS will provide $10,000 per year to the IIF to fund two SAS Forecasting Research Grants. These funds and the grants will be administered by the IIF.
2. These grants will be for targeted research that aims to improve the state of the art in forecasting methods and business forecasting applications. A committee appointed by the IIF will designate research objectives, solicit proposals, award the grants, and oversee completion of sponsored research. The research objectives will be drawn largely from the "Research Needs" identified on the forecasting principles page, and the committee would have oversight on the specification of these needs.
3. The "methodology grant" will be directed to studies that assess the value of new or untested forecasting methods or principles. The "application grant" will be directed to studies on the application of forecasting principles to business decision processes. The grant committee will select research proposals to fill identified gaps in current knowledge so as to advance these two purposes: to enable better forecasts and to enable better use of forecasting by business organizations. Should there be a lack of suitable proposal in one of the areas, two grants could be made in a single area.
4. Grant recipients will author a paper reporting on their research and will be invited to publish the paper in the IJF. The IJF will provide peer review with the intention of improving the paper and authors would be expected to provide reasonable responses to the reviews. The papers should be identified as being the result of a SAS Forecasting Research Grant. In addition to reporting the research, the papers will be accompanied by a note explaining the objective for which the grant was made and how the research results advanced that objective. The editor or a member of the grant committee would write a preface to the paper evaluating the contribution of the research toward the objective for which the committee sponsored it. This provision should advance the goal of encouraging journals to publish "useful" work.
5. It is expected that the applications should include a clear statement of the project’s aims, together with an outline of how they are to be achieved. It should also contain a budget that may include a request for financial support to attend and present the paper in the International Symposium on Forecasting (ISF) to be held in 2012. To be consistent with the objectives of the IIF, the application should propose a scientific approach based on real data. This should normally include a comparison with other standard forecasting methods on withheld data. For prediction validations see, for instance, Makridakis, S., Wheelwright, S. C. and Hyndman, R. J. (1998), 3rd edition, John Wiley and Sons, or Diebold, F. X. (2007), 4th edition, Thomson South-Western.
6. Payment of the full grant will normally only be made on receipt of a draft paper describing the research or against receipted expenditure.
7. The awards of the SAS Forecasting Research Grants will be announced at the ISF general session and on the IIF website. This will advertise the program, call attention to the work of the recipients, and recognize SAS as the sponsor. SAS will also make announcements relative to these papers.
8. The grant committee will send an annual report (letter) to SAS explaining how the money was spent.
Applications should be submitted in electronic format to:
International Institute of Forecasters
Medford, MA USA