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Select a Forecasting Method (Selection Tree)

The Selection Tree provides an effective scheme for selecting the best forecasting methods for a problem.

Click on Tree text to get get more information on the item.

Selection Tree Judgemental methods Combine forecasts Use unadjusted forecasts Omitted information Segmentation Many variables Much quantitative data Interactions, nonlinearities, or priorities Index Extrapolation Rule-based forecasting Expert systems Quantitative analogies Structured analogies Role playing/ Simulated interaction Intentional expectations Conjoint analysis Decomposition Expert Forecasting Type of knowledge Unaided judgment Good domain knowledge Policy analysis Similar cases exist Large changes likely Type of data Conflict among a few decision makers Policy analysis Good knowledge of relationships Large changes expected Quantitative methods Sufficient objective data Highly repetitive with learning QM-Policy analysis Prediction market Regression analysis Index Method Adjust forecast

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J Scott Armstrong

Kesten C Green

Printable Selection Tree PDF Set your printer to landscape mode.