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Test your forecasting knowledge

3rd of August 2010 Click here to test your knowledge of forecasting methods.

Summary of Forecasting Principles

This chapter from Principles of Forecasting (2001) describes 139 principles, most of which are ignored by textbooks and software.(PDF, 137kb)

Textbooks

  • Discussion of principles in textbooks: Cox and Loomis evaluated forecasting textbooks to determine the extent to which they incorporate forecasting principles. The weakest coverage is in the areas of collecting data, assessing uncertainty, and presenting forecasts. Even in the areas of best coverage - setting objectives, preparing data, and implementing quantitative methods - only one-third of the principles were mentioned. None of the books incorporated many of the 139 forecasting principles.
  • Descriptions of forecasting textbooks

Freeware

Several software programs that are useful for teaching forecasting are offered free of cost by their developers. See Freeware on the Software page.

Forecasting Courses

Syllabi - please contribute your syllabus

Experiential Exercises

Experiential exercises confront people with a problem. They try to solve it. Then they are provided with technique or with evidence that will provide a good solution. Please contribute exercises for this section, especially those that show how to apply principles.

  • Air Travel Forecasting Problem (PDF) for students and with accompanying slides for teachers (PowerPoint or PDF). This exercise is designed to provide an introduction to a typical problem, to give people experience with a method (Delphi), and to then provide evidence-based answers. It serves as good introductory exercise for a course and allows people to work with one another using the consensus method. It is designed for 80 minutes, but can be run in less time.
  • The Letter F Test - To examine judgmental confidence. This exercise can be done online. Alternatively, hard copies may be printed for an in-class exercise.

Self-learning, Self-Certification Courses offered by forecastingprinciples.com

Self-learning courses can be more effective for learning than traditional courses. Remember to complete the course and examination before looking at the answers.

  • Forecasting using Structured Analogies (Beta version - Please send This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.your comments and suggestions)
  • Simulated interaction - a method for forecasting decisions in conflicts (Beta version - Please send This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.your comments and suggestions)

Courses Offered by IIF Members

Presentations on forecasting methods

  • "Demand forecasting using evidence-based methods": Scott Armstrong's address to the 3rd International Marketing Management Conference in Teheran on 21 January 2009. See the video here.

 

Levity

Famous Forecasting Quotes - Takes you to another site.