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The early registration deadline for the MORS Symposium being held on 20-23 June in Monterey, CA is 1 April. See the Conferences Page for details.

The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) have invited experts to take part multi-year competition to investigate the accuracy of individual and group predictions about global political, economic and military developments.

In a Wharton Magazine blog, Scott Armstrong and Kesten Green describe problems with much current foreign policy decision making based on expert judgments. More importantly, they provide solutions in the form of evidence-based methods than can provide better forecasts of the effects of alternative policies. The blog is here, and a printable version is available here.

Two additional resources for researchers and practitioners concerned with forecasting terrorism and domestic conflict: Predictive Societal Indicators of Radicalism, and CIRI Human Rights Data Project. Available from the
Resources Page.

Information on the International Association for Conflict Management's 2011 Conference in Istanbul and a call for papers can be found on the
Conferences page.

An update on IARPA's judgmental forecasting Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) Program is available

The U.S. Department of Defense has issued a request for information entitled "Retroactive Statistical Evaluation of Science and Technology (S&T) forecast and forecasting methods." For more information, got the Federal Business Opportunities page

IARPA is to host an information and planning conference for a program on group judgmental forecasting. The announcement in full can be found

Evidence on the recommendation to think about roles to forecast decisions in conflict situations: Have you ever been told you should "stand in the other person's shoes" in order to predict the decisions they will make? Research by Green and Armstrong casts doubt on the usefulness of this recommendation.

The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) has issued a request for information on forecasting for national security decision makers.

Copenhagen Business School and the University of Nottingham are organizing a Conference on International and Intercultural Negotiations on 8-9 April 2010 in Copenhagen.

The International Association for Conflict Management's 23rd Conference will be held in Boston on 24-27 June 2010.

The organising committee of the 4th IMA Conference on Analysing Conflict Transformation to be held on 28-30 June 2010 is calling for the submission of abstracts.

The International Symposium on Forecasting in June and the Conflict and Complexity conference in September both have offerings of interest to the conflict and terrorism forecasting communities.

The International Institute of Forecasters are now accepting applications for the 2008 SAS research grants valued at $5,000 each.
more ...

Forecasting with analogies made headline news when President Bush suggested that the consequences of the US withdrawal from Vietnam would be repeated in Iraq if troops were withdrawn before stability was achieved. Analogies can be useful for forecasting, and Green and Armstrong's paper on their proper use appears in the next issue of the International Journal of Forecasting and is also available as a working paper.

How good are experts at predicting the decisions people will make in conflicts? An article by Green and Armstrong that answers this question has now been published in Interfaces 37(3) with commentaries by Goodwin, Kirkpatrick, Koehler, and Tetlock. A working paper version in Full Text.

Handfuls of international conflicts have erupted in most years since the end of WWI. The International Crises Behavior Project have released Version 7 of their database, which now includes descriptions and coding of conflicts to 2004.

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