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Current version of working paper (please do not cite):

Green, KC, Soon, W, & Armstrong, JS. (2013) "Evidence-based Forecasting for Climate Change Policies".

Temperature Forecasting Quiz

Just for fun, test your climate forecasting skill by printing the image of the Quiz page showing two charts, below, and draw in your 25-year forecasts. (A pdf file copy of the Mystery Temperature Chart Quiz is available here.)

Mystery-charts2

When you have made your forecasts, check them against the actuals and grade them, here.

 

Slides used in 25 June 2012 International Symposium on Forecasting (Boston) panel session on climate forecasting. Panelists providing commentary were Leonard Smith, Richard Lindzen, and Robert Fildes.

Previous evidence-based climate forecasting papers

Fildes, R. & Kourentzes, N. (2011). Validation and forecasting accuracy in models of climate change. International Journal of Forecasting, 27, 968–995.

Armstrong, J. S., Green, K. C., & Soon, W. (2011). Research on forecasting for the manmade global warming alarm. Energy and Environment, 22, 1091-1104. [Testimony to U.S. House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology]

Green, K. C., Armstrong, J. S., & Soon, W. (2009). Validity of climate change forecasting for public policy decision making. International Journal of Forecasting, 25, 826-832.

Armstrong, J. S., Green, K. C., & Soon, W. (2008). Polar bear population forecasts: A public-policy forecasting audit. Interfaces (with commentary), 38, 382-404.

Armstrong, J. S., Green, K. C., & Soon, W. (2008). What is the appropriate public-policy response to uncertainty? Interfaces, 38, 404-405.

Green, K. C. & Armstrong, J. S. (2007). Global warming: Forecasts by scientists versus scientific forecasts. Energy and Environment, 18, 997-1021.