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A Partial Presidential Elections Forecasting Bibliography

 

  • Abramowitz, Alan I. (2005), "The Time-for-Change Model and the 2004 Presidential Election: A Post-Mortem and a Look Ahead," P.S. Political Science and Politics, XXXVIII, 1, 31.

  • Abramowitz, Alan I. (2004), "When Good Forecasts Go Bad: The Time-for-Change Model and the 2004 Presidential Election," P.S. Political Science and Politics. XXXVII, 4, 745-746.

  • Abramowitz, Alan (2001), "The Time for Change Model and the 2000 Election," American Politics Research, 29 (3), 279-282.

  • Abramowitz, Alan I. (1996), "Bill and Al's Excellent Adventure. Forecasting the 1996 Presidential Election," American Politics Quarterly. Special Issue: Forecasting the 1996 Elections, 24 (4): 434-442.

  • Armstrong, J. Scott, Kesten C. Green, Randall J. Jones and Malcolm Wright (2008), "Predicting Elections from Politicians’ Faces" - Full Text
  • Armstrong, J. Scott (2003), "Review of Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things," (Ray Fair, Stanford University Press; Stanford, CA 2002), International Journal for Forecasting, 19, 760-761 - Full Text

  • Armstrong, J. Scott (2001) "Combining Forecasts," in Principles of Forecasting, Kluwer,  pp. 417-439 – Abstract

  • Bafumi, Joseph, Erikson, Robert S. and Christopher Wlezien (2006), "Forecasting House Seats Generic Congressional Polls" - Full Text

  • Campbell, James E. (2005a), "Introduction - Assessments of the 2004 Presidential Vote Forecasts," P.S. Political Science and Politics, XXXVIII, 1, 23.

  • Campbell, James E. (2005b), "Evaluating the Trial-Heat and Economy Forecast of the 2004 Presidential Vote: All's Well that Ends Well," P.S. Political Science and Politics, XXXVIII, 1, 33-34.

  • Campbell, James E. (2005c), "The Fundamentals in US Presidential Elections: Public Opinion, the Economy and Incumbency in the 2004 Presidential Election," Journal of Elections, Public Opinion, and Parties, 15, 1, 73-83.

  • Campbell, James E. (2004a), "Introduction—The 2004 Presidential Elections Forecasts," P.S. Political Science and Politics, XXXVII, 4, 733-735.

  • Campbell, James E. (2004b), "Forecasting the Presidential Vote in 2004: Placing Preference Polls in Context," P.S. Political Science and Politics, XXXVII, 4, 763-768.

  • Campbell, James E. (2001a), "An Evaluation of the Trial-Heat and Economy Forecast of the Presidential Vote in the 2000 Election," American Politics Research, 29 (3), 289-296.

  • Campbell, James E. (2001b), "The Referendum That Didn’t Happen: The Forecasts of the 2000 Presidential Election," PS: Political Science and Politics, XXXIV (1): 33-38.

  • Campbell, James E. (2001c), "Taking Stock of the Forecasts of the 2000 Presidential Election," American Politics Research, 29 (3), 275-278.

  • Campbell, James E. (1996), "Polls and Votes. The Trial-Heat Presidential Election Forecasting Model, Certainty, and Political Campaigns," American Politics Quarterly. Special Issue: Forecasting the 1996 Elections, 24 (4): 408-433.

  • Campbell, James E. and James C. Garand (2000), Before the Vote. Forecasting American National Elections. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, Inc. [Available amazon.com with editorial review] See book description.

  • Cuzán, Alfred G. and Charles M. Bundrick (2006), "Will the Republicans Retain Control of the House of Representatives in 2006?" Paper presented at the Northeastern Political Science Assotiation, November 2006, Boston. Full Text (PDF)

  • Cuzán, Alfred G. and Charles M. Bundrick (2005), "Deconstructing the 2004 Presidential Elections Forecasts: The Fiscal Model and the Campbell Collection Compared," PS: Political Science and Politics, XXXVIII, 2, 255-262. Full Text (PDF)

  • Cuzán, Alfred G. and Charles M. Bundrick (2004), "Fiscal Effects on Presidential Elections: A Forecast for 2004."  Paper prepared for presentation at the September meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago. - Full Text

  • Cuzán, Alfred G. and Charles M. Bundrick (2004), "Comparing the Time-for-Change and Fiscal Models: A Synthesis?" - Full Text

  • Cuzán, Alfred G. and Charles M. Bundrick (2004), "Fiscal Effects on Presidential Elections: A Forecast for 2004," Paper presented at the September meeting of the American Political Science Association - Full Text

  • Cuzán, Alfred G. and Charles M. Bundrick, (2003), "Fiscal Policy: A Missing Factor in Ray Fair’s Presidential Elections Forecasting Model?" - Full Text

  • Cuzán, Alfred G. and Charles M. Bundrick (1999), “Fiscal Policy as a Forecasting Factor in   Presidential Elections,” American Politics Quarterly, 29 (3): 338-353.

  • Cuzán, Alfred G., Richard J. Heggen and Charles M. Bundrick (2003), Voters and Presidents. A Fiscal Model. Philadelphia: Xlibris, 2003 - Full Text

  • DeSart, Jay A. and Thomas M. Holbrook (2003), "Statewide Trial-Heat Polls and the 2000 Presidential Election: A Forecast Model,” Social Science Quarterly, 84 (3), 561-573.

  • Erikson, Robert S. and Christopher Wlezien (2006), "Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors?" - Full Text

  • Fair, Ray C. (2004), "Predicting Electoral College Victory Probabilities from State Probability Data" (PDF)

  • Fair, Ray C. (2004), "Presidential Vote Equation – February 5, 2004. "

  • Fair, Ray C. (2002), "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 2000 Update"

  • Fair, Ray C. (2002), Predicting Presidential Elections and Other Things. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press. [Available on amazon.com with customer review] See review. See also Armstrong's review of Fair's book.

  • Fair, Ray C. (1996), "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1992 Update," Political Behavior, 18 (2): 119-139.

  • Garand, James C. and James E. Campbell, Eds.(1996,) Special Issue: Forecasting the 1996 Elections. American Politics Quarterly, 24 (4): 403-535.

  • Hibbs, Douglas A. Jr. (n.d.), "The Economy and the Year 2000 Presidential Election"

  • Hibbs, Douglas A. Jr. (2000), "Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections," Public Choice. 104: 149-180. Full Text

  • Hibbs, Douglas (2004), " Implications of the Bread and Peace Model of US Presidential Voting for the 2004 Election Outcome."  Full Text

  • Holbrook, Thomas M. (2005), "A Post-Mortem Update of the Economic News and Personal Finances Forecasting Model," P.S. Political Science and Politics, XXXVIII, 1, 35-36.

  • Holbrook, Thomas M. (2004), "Good News for Bush? Economic News, Personal Finances, and the 2004 Presidential Election," P.S. Political Science and Politics, XXXVII, 4, 759-761.

  • Holbrook, Thomas M. (2001), "Forecasting with Mixed Economic Signals: A Cautionary Tale,"     PS: Political Science and Politics, XXXIV (1): 39-44.

  • Holbrook, Thomas M. (1996), "Reading the Political Tea Leaves: A Forecasting Model of Contemporary Presidential Elections," American Politics Quarterly. Special Issue: Forecasting the 1996 Elections, 24 (4): 506-519.

  • Jones, Randall J., Jr. (2002), Who Will Be in the White House? Predicting Presidential Elections. New York: Addison Wesley Longman Educational Publishers, Inc .[Available onamazon.com with editorial review] See review.

  • Lewis-Beck, Michael S. and Charles Tien (2005), "The Jobs Model Forecast: Well Done in 2004," P.S. Political Science and Politics, XXXVIII, 1, 27-29.

  • Lewis-Beck, Michael S. and Charles Tien (2004), "Jobs and the Job of President: A Forecast for 2004," P.S. Political Science and Politics, XXXVII, 4, 753-758.

  • Lewis-Beck, Michael S. and Charles Tien (2001), "Modeling for the Future: Lessons from the Gore Forecast," PS: Political Science and Politics, XXXIV (1): 21-24.

  • Lewis-Beck, Michael S. and Charles Tien (1996), "The Future in Forecasting. Prospective Presidential Models," American Politics Quarterly, 24 (4): 468-491.

  • Lichtman, Allan J. (2003), "The Keys to Election 2004," The Gazette. April 25, 2003.

  • Lichtman, Allan J., and Ken DeCell, (1990), The Thirteen Keys to the Presidency. Lanham, MD:  Madison Books. [Available on amazon.com with editorial and customer reviews]

  • Lichtman, Allan J. and Voldia I. Keilis-Borok (1981),  "Pattern Recognition Applied to Presidential Elections in the United States, 1860-1980:  Role of Integral Social, Economic, and Political Traits,"  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences , 78 (11), 7230-7234.

  • Lichtman, Allan J. and William Schneider (1996), The Keys to the White House, 1996: A Surefire Guide to Predicting the Next President, Lanham, MD:  Madison Books. [Available onamazon.com with editorial and customer reviews]

  • Lockerbie, Brad (2005), "After the Vote: Evaluating a Prospective Forecasting Model of Presidential Elections," P.S. Political Science and Politics, XXXVIII, 1, 39-40.

  • Lockerbie, Brad (2004), "A Look to the Future: Forecasting the 2004 Presidential Election," P.S. Political Science and Politics, XXXVII, 4, 741-743.

  • Norpoth, Helmut (2005), "As New Hampshire Goes (in January)...," P.S. Political Science and Politics, XXXVIII, 1, 37.

  • Norpoth, Helmut (2004), "From Primary to General Election: A Forecast of the Presidential Vote," P.S. Political Science and Politics, XXXVII, 4, 737-740.

  • Norpoth, Helmut (2001), "Primary Colors: A Mixed Blessing for Al Gore," PS: Political Science and Politics, XXXIV (1): 45-48.

  • Norpoth, Helmut (1996), "Of Time and Candidates: A Forecast for 1996," American Politics Quarterly. Special Issue: Forecasting the 1996 Elections24 (4): 443-463.

  • Rhode, Paul W. and Koleman S. Strumpf (2004).  "Historical Presidential Betting Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18 (2):  127-142.

  • Soumbatiants, Souren, Henry W. Chappell, Jr., and Eric Johnson (2003), "Using State Polls to Forecast U.S. Presidential Election Outcomes." Unpublished. December 15 - Full Text. 

  • Wlezien, Christopher and Robert S. Erikson (2005), "Post-Election Reflections on Our Pre-Election Predictions," P.S. Political Science and Politics, XXXVIII, 1, 25-26.

  • Wlezien, Christopher (2001), "On Forecasting the Presidential Election Vote," PS: Political Science and Politics, XXXIV (1): 25-32. Full Text

  • Wlezien, Christopher and Robert S. Erikson (2004), "The Fundamentals, the Polls, and the Presidential Vote," PS: Political Science and Politics, XXXVII, 4, 747-751.

  • Wlezien, Christopher and Robert S. Erikson (1996), "Temporal Horizons and Presidential Election Forecasts," American Politics Quarterly. Special Issue: Forecasting the 1996 Elections, 24 (4): 492-505.

  • Wolfers, Justin and Eric Zitzewitz (2004).  "Prediction Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18 (2):  107-126. Full Text