Polly the parrot is back for forecasting the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. In order to calculate the PollyVote forecast, Polly uses the evidence-based principle of combining forecasts to average forecasts within and across different methods, each of which rely on different information. Election forecasting thus provides ideal conditions for demonstrating the benefits of combining. In fact, PollyVote has provided highly accurate U.S. election forecasts since her first appearance in 2004.
The PollyVote currently predicts that the Democrats will gain 51.5% of the national popular two-party vote, compared to 48.5% for the Republicans. Yet, there is still a lot of uncertainty until the candidates are known. You can track the daily updated forecast at pollyvote.com.