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The paper provides simple and easily understood guidelines on when and how to use the Golden Rule in the form of a checklist. Forecasters can use the checklist to design and to audit their forecasting procedures. Non-experts can use it to assess whether the forecasting procedures for a given project are credible.

The authors tested the 28 Golden Rule guidelines by reviewing published experimental evidence. They found 150 relevant experiments, and the findings all supported the Golden Rule. The average forecast error reduction from using a single guideline was 28%.

The authors are looking for relevant studies that they have overlooked in their working paper. They are particularly interested to learn of experimental findings that might challenge the Golden Rule. They ask that you check the references in the paper to see whether any of your own experimental studies, or others with which you are familiar, were overlooked.

A copy of the paper is available here.

Please contact Scott at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it., Kesten at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it., or Andreas at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. if you are able to help.