Announcement: Forecasting international security events has generally been considered the field of political scientists specialised in international relations.Their method of analysis relied almost exclusively on expert judgment, which is notoriously unreliable. Domain experts are usually reluctant to even consider the use of simulated interactions and tend to rely heavily on their expertise. The following survey studies the possible impact of simulated interactions on international security forecasting. Its objectives are to indicate:
- how forecasters perceive the possible constraints surrounding the quest for a security forecasting model,
- how to weigh forces acting on such a model,
- the importance of personal biases and assumptions in simulated interactions, and
- whether forecasters think that such a model is achievable, approachable or simply too complex to envision.
Jean Perois, a security practitioner in the Middle-East and a doctoral student with the University of Leicester, is conducting this survey as part of a thesis called â€˜What Realism for which Future: A search for an international security forecasting modelâ€™, in which he explores the conceptual framework in which IR forecasting could express itself. This survey aims to understand how forecasting practitioners and academics perceive the limits of their trade.
The survey can be found here. The survey should take twenty minutes to complete and all participants will receive a copy of the findings.