List of Defined Terms

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A B C D E F G H I
J K L M N O P Q R
S T U V W X Y Z  

Abbreviations and Acronyms
Complete Dictionary References

New/revised entries are marked with an asterisk * (since publication of Principles of Forecasting, May 2001).

A

a posteriori analysis
a priori analysis
acceleration
accuracy (forecast accuracy)
acf (autocorrelation function)
actuarial prediction
adaptive conjoint analysis
adaptive parameters
adaptive response rate
adaptive smoothing
additive model
adjusted R2
adjustment
AIC (Akaike Information Criteria)
AID (tree analysis)
algorithm
amalgamated forecast
analogous time series
analogy
analytic process
anchoring
anticipation
AR model (autoregressive)
ARCH model (autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic)
ARIMA model (autoregressive integrated moving average)
ARMA model (autoregressive moving average)
assessment center tests
asymmetric error
asymptotically unbiased estimator
attraction market-share model
attributional bias
autocorrelation
autocorrelation function
automatic forecasting program
automatic interaction detector (AID)
autoregressive model
availability heuristic

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B

backcasting
backward shift operator
bafflegab
base period
base rate
basic research
basic trend
batch forecasting
Bayesian analysis
Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC)
Bayesian methods
Bayesian pooling
Bayesian vector autoregression model
benchmark forecasts
BFE (bold freehand extrapolation)
bias
biased estimator
BIC (Bayesian Information Criteria)
BJ methods (Box-Jenkins)
bold freehand extrapolation (BFE)
bootstrapping
bottom-up
bounded values
Box-Jenkins methods
Box-Pierce test
brainstorming
Brier score
Brunswick Lens model
business cycles
BVAR model (Bayesian vector autoregression model)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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C

calibrate
calibration data
canonical correlation
case-based reasoning (CBR)
causal chain
causal forces
causal model
causal relationship
causal variable
Census II
Census Program x-12
central limit theorem
chow test
classical decomposition method
clinical judgments
coefficient
coefficient of determination
coefficient of inequality
coefficient of variation
cognitive dissonance
cognitive feedback
coherence
cohort model
cointegration
combining forecasts
commensurate measure
comparison group
compensatory model
complex time series
composite forecasts
composite index
conditional forecast
confidence interval
conjoint analysis
conjunction fallacy
conjunctive model
consensus seeking
consensus
conservatism
consistent trend
construct validity
consumer heterogeneity
contextual information
contrary series
contrast group
control group
convenience sample
correlation matrix
correlation
correlogram
covariance
criterion variable
cross-correlation
cross-sectional data
cross-validation
Croston's method
cue
cumulative error
cumulative forecasting
current status
curve fitting
cusum
cyclical data
cyclical index

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D

damp
damped trend
data generating process (DGP)
decay forces
deceleration
decomposition
degrees of freedom
Delphi technique
demand
dependent variable
deseasonalized data
detrend
devil's advocate
DGP (data generating process)
diagnostic checking
Dickey-Fuller test

differencing
diffusion
diffusion index
disaggregation
disconfirming evidence
discontinuity
discrete event
discriminant analysis
disjunctive model
domain expert
domain knowledge
double cross-validation
double moving average
dummy variable
Durbin-Watson statistic
dynamic regression model

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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E

eclectic research
econometric method
econometric model
economic indicator
efficient
elasticity
encompassing model
endogenous variable
ensemble
environment
equilibrium correction model
error correction model
error cost function
error distribution
error ratio
error term
estimate-talk-estimate (E-T-E)
estimation

estimation sample
E-T-E (estimate-talk-estimate)
event modeling
ex ante forecast
ex post forecast
exogenous variable
expectations survey
experiment
experimental data
expert opinion
expert system
expertise
explanation effect
explanatory variable
exploratory research
exponential smoothing
extrapolation

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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F

face validity
facilitator
factor analysis
feature
feature identification
feedback
file
filter
first difference
Fisher exact test
fit
focus group
forecast
forecast accuracy
forecast competition

forecast criteria
forecast error
forecast horizon
forecast interval
forecast validity
forecast variable
forecasting
forecasting audit
forecasting competition
forecasting engine
forecasting model
forecasting support system
framing
f-test
function
functional form

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G

gambler's fallacy
game theory*
GARCH model (generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroscedastic)
generalized least square (GLS)
genetic algorithm
global assessment
goodness of fit
growth cycle
growth forces

 

 

 

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H

heteroscedasticity
heuristics
hierarchy of effects
hindsight bias
hit rate
holdout data
holdout tasks
holistic
Holt's exponential smoothing method
Holt-Winters' exponential smoothing method
homoscedasticity
horizon

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I

identification
illusion of control
inconsistent trend
independent variable
index method
index number
index of predictive efficiency
inductive technique
initializing
innovation
input-output analysis
instability
integrated
intentions survey
interaction
intercept
interdependence
intermittent demands
intermittent series
interpolation
interrater reliability
interrupted series
interval scale
intervention analysis
intuition
ipsative score
irregular demand

 

 

 

 

 

 


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J

jackknife
judgment
judgmental adjustment
judgmental bootstrapping
judgmental extrapolation

judgmental forecasting
judgmental revision
jury of executive opinion
Juster scale

 

 


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K

Kalman filter

Kendall rank correlation

 

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L

lag
lagged value
lagging index
lead
lead time
leading indicator
least absolute value
least squares estimation
lens model
level
Lewin's change process
linear model

Ljung-Box test
local trend
logarithmic transformation
logistic
logit
log-log model
long range
long waves
longitudinal data
long-run effect
long-run relationship
loss function

 

 

 

 

 

 

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M

MAD
market potential
Markov chain
martingale
maximum likelihood estimation
m-competition
mean absolute deviation
mean absolute error
mean absolute percentage error
mean percentage error
mean squared error
measurement error
measurement model
median
meta-analysis

mini-Delphi
misspecification test
mitigation
model
Monte Carlo simulation
months for cyclical dominance
moving average
moving origin
multicollinearity
multiple correlation coefficient
multiple hypotheses
multiple regression
multiplicative model
multi-state Kalman filter
multivariate ARMA model

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N

naive model
Neftci probability approach
neural network
NGT (nominal group technique)
noise
nominal dollars
nominal group technique (NGT)
nominal scale
noncompensatory model
nondirective interviewing

nonexperimental data
nonlinear estimation
nonlinearity
nonparametric test
nonresponse bias
nonstationarity
nowcasting
null hypothesis
number-of-attribute-levels effect
N-way cross validation

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O

observation
Occam's Razor
OLS (ordinary least squares)
omitted variable
operational measure
opposing forces
optimism

ordinal scale
ordinary least squares (OLS)
origin
outcome feedback
outlier
out-of-sample forecast
overconfidence

 

 

 

 

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P

panel
panel data
parameter
parameter stability
parsimony
partial correlation
pattern regime
phase average trend
plan
policy-capturing
polynomial
postsample evaluation
practical significance
preciseness
precision

prediction
prediction interval
predictive validity
probability sample
process-tracing method
product hierarchy
product life cycle
production function
prognosis
projection
projective test
protocol
proxy variable
purchase intention
purchase probability

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Q

quasi-experimental data

quasi-rational judgment

 

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R

R2 (R-squared)
random errors
random sampling
random walk
randomized response technique
ratio scale
realization
recent trend
reconciling forecasts
recursive model
regressing forces
regression
regression analysis
regression coefficient
regression to the mean
regressor
reinforcing series
relative absolute error

reliability
replication
representativeness
residual
resolution
response error
retrospective process tracing
revised forecast
robust trend
role
role playing
role reversal
role taking
rolling horizon
root mean squared error
rounds
rule-based forecasting
runs test

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S

safety stock
sales composite
sample
sampling error
saturation level
scenario
Scenarios
Schwarz criteria
seasonal adjustment
seasonal difference
seasonal exponential smoothing
seasonal factors
seasonal index
seasonality
secular trend
seer-sucker theory
segmentation
self-confidence
self-defeating prophecy
self-fulfilling prophecy
sensitivity analysis
serial correlation
setwise regression
shrinkage
shrinking
sigmoid
significant digit
simple regression
simulated data
simulated interaction*
simulated test market
simultaneous causality
simultaneous equations
single-equation model
SKU (stock keeping unit)
smoothing
smoothing constant
Social Science Citation Index

spatial diffusion

Spearman rank correlation
special event
specification error
specification test
spectral analysis
split sample
spreadsheet add-ins
spurious relationships
SSCI (Social Science Citations Index)
s-shaped curve
standard deviation
standard error of the estimate
standard error of the model
standardize
starting value
state-space model
static simulation
stationary series
statistical group
statistical significance
stepwise regression
Stigler's law*
stochastic variable
structural break
structural model
structured analogies (SA)*
structured judgment
successive reestimation
successive updating
super ensemble
supporting forces
survey error
surveys of consumer and business expectations
suspicious pattern
switching model
symmetric MAPE
systems model

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T

telescoping
test market
test marketing
Theil's U
theory
time-series data
time-series pooling method
time-varying parameter model
top-down
tracking signal

trade-off analysis
trading day
transformation
treatment effect
tree
trend analysis
true score
t-test
Turing test
turning point

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U

unaided judgement

uncertainty
unconditional forecast
unit root

unit weight

unobtrusive measure
updated forecast
updated model

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V

validation
variance

vector autoregressive model (VAR)
volatility

 


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W

wag (wild-assed guess)
wave
weight
weighted application blank
Wilcoxon matched-pairs signed-ranks test

wind-tunnel data
winsorizing
Winters exponential smoothing
wishful thinking

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X

x-11 decomposition

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Y

   

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Z

   

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