With the proliferation of taxes, subsidies, and regulations being justified by appealing to predictions of dangerous manmade global warming, Scott Armstrong and Kesten Green believe that climate change is currently the most important forecasting problem in the world. With that in mind, Scott will present their latest research on the topic at the International Symposium on Forecasting in Boulder, Colorado, on June 19.
Following the New York Times injunction to "follow the science", the talk will be titled "Do forecasters of manmade global warming follow the science?". For some background on the topic, see Scott's essay describing their research has been posted under the title of "Is the Earth becoming dangerously warmer?" on WUWT.
The authors of "Forecasting methods and principles: Evidence-based checklists"—Scott Armstrong and Kesten Green—are pleased to announce that they have been given permission to post the published version of this paper on ForPrin.com. The paper addresses the problem of "How to help practitioners, academics, and decision makers use experimental research findings to substantially reduce forecast errors for all types of forecasting problems." A Chinese translation is included in the paper.
Scott Armstrong and Kesten Green's "Forecasting methods and principles: evidence-based checklists" was published online on March 14.
The objective of the paper is "to help practitioners, academics, and decision makers use experimental research findings to substantially reduce forecast errors for all types of forecasting problems." The objective was met by providing four evidence-based checklists for designing and auditing forecasting procedures.
Kesten Green's analysis of the outcome of a 10 year "bet" between Scott Armstrong's scientific forecast of global mean temperatures and warnings of a tipping point by former US vice president Al Gore has been posted to theclimatebet.com and various blogs. It is repeated here for the interest of the forecasting community.