Forecasting Principles - Evidence-based Forecasting
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More speakers announced for ISF 2010 in San Diego

05 February 2010 - The announced speakers for the International Symposium on Forecasting in San Diego this June now include Keynote Speakers Greg Allenby (Ohio University), Tim Bollerslev (Duke University),... Read more

Request for information on forecasting for national security from IARPA

03 February 2010 -The Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) has issued a request for information on forecasting for national security decision makers who are interested in forecasting political,... Read more

Mark Watson to give first Clive Granger Memorial Keynote Address at ISF

19 January 2010 - The International Institute of Forecasters is pleased to announce the first Clive Granger Memorial Keynote Address. This is in honor and memoriam of Clive Granger, Nobel Prize-winning... Read more

Two Firms announce 2010 forecasting workshop and conference plans

11 January 2010 -Forecast Pro and Timberlake will sponsor meetings in Boston, February 8-10 and in Washington D. C., March 18-19 respectively. Forecast Pro (Business Forecast Systems) will sponsor for experienced... Read more

New data from the M3-competition

17 December 2009 -Michele Hibon has grouped forecasts into the 24 different methods used by the competitors in the M3-competition in an Excel file. The data is now available on the Data Page under the... Read more

Tourism Forecasting Special Interest Group Launched

16 December 2009 -The Tourism Forecasting Special Interest Group (SIG), sponsored by The Hong Kong Tourism Demand Forecasting System (HKTDFS), was launched on November 26. This SIG is maintained by Haiyan Song, the... Read more

History shows manmade global warming alarm to be false – but that harmful policies will persist

14 December 2009 -Using the structured analogies forecasting method that they have developed, Kesten Green and Scott Armstrong have concluded that alarm over “dangerous manmade global warming” is the... Read more

ForPrin.com visits exceed 2 million

11 December 2009 -The number of visits to the Forecasting Principles site has in less than a year doubled to now exceed 2 million. The first million visits was not achieved until ten years after the site was... Read more

Copenhagen climate summit concerns not justified by scientific forecasting

07 December 2009 -In their paper in the latest issue of the International Journal of Forecasting, Kesten Green, Scott Armstrong, and Willie Soon cast doubt on the need for concern over dangerous manmade global warming... Read more

Lancaster's "Forecasting Fundamentals Course" on 2nd & 3rd December

11 November 2009 -Some places are still available for Lancaster's course starting on 2-3 December with a second two-day block by arrangement. Some experience in forecasting is assumed. The course will consist of... Read more

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Principle of the day:

14.8 Obtain good feedback about forecast accuracy and the reasons why errors occurred

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The Forecasting Principles site summarizes all useful knowledge about forecasting so that it can be used by researchers, practitioners, and educators. The site is devoted to improving decision making by furthering scientific forecasting.

 
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